Japan's Rising Strategic Value and the Potential Restructuring of the Asia-Pacific Order

<jats:p>This policy brief examines Japan’s rising strategic value and its potential role in restructuring the Asia-Pacific order. It argues that Japan’s geography is increasingly combined with indigenous military capability, U.S. forward presence, advanced industry, technology, logistics, and expanding regional security ties. For the United States, Japan functions as a strategic distance compressor and regional power-conversion platform, reducing the distance, cost, and friction of sustaining U.S. power in Northeast Asia. For China and Russia, a major change in Japan’s alignment could generate substantial denial value and, under more demanding conditions, potential transfer value. The brief distinguishes denial, neutralization, and Japan System Transfer, and argues that a Japan-system shock would reprice strategic value across the Asia-Pacific by altering the geography, connectivity, and cost of regional power projection.</jats:p>