Rerouting the Gulf: Bypass Infrastructure and the Changing Strategic Value of the Strait of Hormuz

<jats:p>This policy brief examines how Gulf bypass infrastructure is changing the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz. It argues that the transition is from chokepoint indispensability toward differentiated bypassability, not from strategic importance to irrelevance. Crude oil can acquire substantial non-Hormuz capacity faster than petroleum products, while LNG remains structurally harder to substitute. The brief assesses Saudi westward pipeline options, UAE east-coast crude and port expansion, Hafeet Rail and Oman’s Gulf of Oman gateway role, crisis-era commercial rerouting, and the limits of claims that 50–70 percent of total energy flows could bypass Hormuz within two years. It concludes that bypass investment redistributes chokepoint risk across a wider network of pipelines, ports, railways, roads, terminals, and secondary maritime chokepoints.</jats:p>