Abstract
<jats:p>The U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict and sustained pressure on the Strait of Hormuz have increased the strategic value of eastward and northward logistics alternatives linking China, Central Asia, Russia, and the Caspian Sea. China–Central Asia rail data for January–June 2026 show that outbound TEU increased faster than outbound train frequency, indicating more intensive use of existing services. Caspian monitoring also shows recurrent Baseline Output above the historical reference level, broadly balanced arrival–departure turnover, and increased Russian-flagged cargo-vessel presence during June and July. The evidence supports higher corridor activity and utilization more clearly than conflict causality, cargo composition, or final destination. The emerging system is best understood as a distributed logistics redundancy network that complements, rather than replaces, Persian Gulf maritime transport.</jats:p>