Abstract
<jats:sec> <jats:title>Context</jats:title> <jats:p>Under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) final financial phase, the cost an importer pays in 2027 on 2026 imports is set by whether embedded emissions are carried as verified actual values or as Commission default values. This Brief sets out what the verification methodology requires and what it costs to satisfy.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Findings</jats:title> <jats:p>Verification of actual values requires an independent verifier accredited by an EU or EEA National Accreditation Body to EN ISO/IEC 14065, with a mandatory on-site inspection in the first reporting year. Default values are engineered to be more expensive than verified data: each is set at the average intensity of the ten highest-emission-intensity exporting countries and loaded with a phased mark-up of plus 10 percent in 2026, plus 20 percent in 2027 and plus 30 percent from 2028 for steel, aluminium, iron and cement, and a flat 1 percent for fertilisers. The Brief supplies an Actual-versus-Default Exposure Model built in five layers — embedded emissions, reference price, default mark-up, CBAM factor and Article 31 free-allocation adjustment — with route-level reconciliation between Annex I values and Fastmarkets 2026a vendor figures for blast-furnace hot-rolled coil and primary unwrought aluminium, and a seven-step Verifier-Readiness Protocol.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Implications</jats:title> <jats:p>Importers who secure verified installation-level data and accredited verification before the 30 September 2027 surrender date are sourced on actual values. Those who elect or fall back to default values absorb the phased mark-up. The exposure model and the verifier-readiness protocol are the two instruments that govern 2027 cash.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Confidence</jats:title> <jats:p>CONFIRMED on the methodology, the accreditation framework and the default-value design. REPORTED on verifier fees, timelines and cost magnitudes. INFERRED on the 2028 downstream timing.</jats:p> </jats:sec>