Methodological Extension of Ukraine's Food Security Indicator System Using Resilience Criteria

<jats:p>The study addresses the methodological problem of combining Ukraine's statutory food-security monitoring with an assessment of agri-food system resilience. A two-layer architecture is proposed. Its regulatory core preserves the formulas established by Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 1140 of 15 September 2025, while an external diagnostic module supplements them with retrospective indicators without replacing the official calculation. The regulatory audit covers 46 indicator positions and reveals a structural asymmetry: production and foreign-trade measures are disaggregated across commodity groups, whereas the socially sensitive food-access block remains aggregated and lacks a continuous statutory data basis after 2021. The diagnostic module uses thirteen FAO, FAOSTAT and World Development Indicators series for 2015–2023, organised into food provision, economic and social access, and aggregate food-supply blocks. Their 2023 values equal 96.25, 65.44 and 80.93 normalised-index points, respectively. This result indicates that the principal vulnerability lies not in the physical volume of supply but in households' unequal capacity to obtain food. Robustness checks using alternative baselines, normalisation corridors, arithmetic and geometric aggregation, and leave-one-out exclusions confirm that the access profile is the most heterogeneous and composition-sensitive block. Three-year moving averages are interpreted separately from annual observations, and early recovery is assessed only when a post-shock year is available. The scientific contribution is a formal distinction between statutory indicators, external diagnostic proxies, and the functions of shock, recovery and transformation. The practical output is a management-response matrix linking informational, warning and critical signals to verification procedures, responsible public institutions, response instruments and completion criteria. The proposed architecture can add an early-warning layer to annual public reporting while avoiding the creation of a competing composite index and preserving the legal status of the official methodology.</jats:p>