Ecological Carrying Capacity Analysis and Community Participation in Sustainable Mangrove Ecotourism Development in Berau Regency

<jats:p>Mangrove ecosystems serve as critical natural assets that simultaneously provide ecological services and economic opportunities for coastal communities. Berau Regency, possessing approximately 80,000 hectares of mangrove forest, represents a strategic location for sustainable ecotourism development. This research examines the complex relationship between ecological carrying capacity and community participation in developing sustainable mangrove ecotourism through an integrated analytical framework. Employing a mixed-methods approach combining Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), data were collected from 385 respondents, including local communities, tourists, and stakeholders across three mangrove ecotourism sites in Berau Regency. The novelty of this research lies in integrating local cultural wisdom, governance mechanisms, and quantitative welfare indicators within a comprehensive sustainability framework. Results demonstrate that community participation significantly influences ecotourism sustainability (β=0.742, p&lt;0.001), while ecological carrying capacity maintains critical importance (β=0.658, p&lt;0.001). The AHP analysis reveals that cultural integration scores highest in sustainable development priorities (weight=0.385), followed by institutional governance (0.287) and economic benefits (0.196). Tourism Carrying Capacity analysis indicates optimal visitor limits of 360-803 people/day across different sites. Economic analysis demonstrates potential community welfare improvements of 47.3% through participatory ecotourism management. Policy recommendations emphasize establishing community-based management institutions, implementing dynamic visitor quotas, and integrating traditional ecological knowledge into conservation strategies. This research contributes to theoretical advancement in sustainable tourism literature and provides empirical evidence for evidence-based policy formulation in coastal ecosystem management.</jats:p>