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Abstract

<jats:p>Rapid urbanization is altering the seasonal life cycles, or phenology, of urban trees. Diverse species composition and heterogeneous urban thermal environments can generate pronounced phenological variation within cities, yet such fine-scale seasonality remains poorly understood. This limits the ability to anticipate localized ecosystem services and disservices, including canopy cooling and pollen exposure. Here, we analyzed individual-tree phenology and their response to temperature across 76 cities in the contiguous United States by integrating municipal street-tree inventories, PlanetScope satellite time series, and 1-km near-surface urban air-temperature data. We quantified intra-city and cross-city phenological variation, estimated species-level associations between phenology and fine-scale urban temperature, and tested whether these associations vary with regional climatic context. Intra-city phenological variation rivaled cross-city variation for 33.3% of species in spring and 53.7% in fall. Temperature-phenology associations were widespread: warmer local urban environments were associated with earlier spring onset in 51.5% of cases and delayed fall senescence in 66.5%, with approximately two-thirds of these responses cascading to longer growing seasons. These associations varied with regional climate, generally showing stronger spring advancement and fall delay in cooler and wetter cities, but weaker or reversed responses in hotter or drier cities. Together, these results suggest that urban tree phenology is shaped by interactions among fine-scale urban temperature, species identity, and regional climate. Accounting for this heterogeneity can improve predictions of urban forest function and inform climate-resilient species selection and management.</jats:p>

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Keywords

urban phenology species variation cities

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