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Abstract
<jats:p>The purpose of this article is to formulate and empirically test the theoretical and methodological basis of an economic and mathematical model linking state fragility (FSI), water stress, strategic resource structure, and climate-related pressure. A panel dataset was constructed for Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, and the Russian Federation for 2011–2020, and the main specification was estimated using a two-way fixed-effects model with country and year effects. The results show that the coefficient of water stress is positive in sign but not statistically significant at the 5% level in the preferred specification, whereas log GDP per capita, energy dependence, and agricultural structure statistically significant relationships with FSI.</jats:p>