O‘ZBEKISTONNING TOJIKISTON VA TURKMANISTON BILAN SAVDOSI TAHLILI, ANALYSIS OF UZBEKISTAN'S TRADE WITH TAJIKISTAN AND TURKMENISTAN, АНАЛИЗ ТОРГОВЛИ УЗБЕКИСТАНА С ТАДЖИКИСТАНОМ И ТУРКМЕНИСТАНОМ

<jats:p>This article analyzes Uzbekistan’s foreign trade relations with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan over 2010–2024 using a gravity model approach. The findings show that between 2017 and 2021, bilateral trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan grew nearly fivefold, reaching $902.0 million, yet this accounts for only 2.1% of Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade turnover. Gravity model estimates (R²=0.795) indicate that a 1% increase in Turkmenistan’s GDP raises bilateral trade by more than 2%, while the effect of Uzbekistan’s GDP is positive but statistically weaker. In the case of Tajikistan, the GDP coefficient was negative, which may be explained by the small sample size and factors not captured by the model. The article offers practical recommendations for modernizing transport-logistics infrastructure, reducing border-crossing times, and expanding transit through the Caspian corridor.</jats:p>