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Abstract

<jats:p>The fast-warming climate raises a number of scientific challenges as it drives the Earth system into states that are unprecedented in human history. This requires an understanding of potential high-impact systemic changes or events, including those associated with “tipping points” and their cascading consequences. Due to the nonlinear dynamics of the Earth system, its response to human forcing can also be nonlinear, potentially leading to “tipping dynamics” in its components. Such changes in Earth system components and their ecosystems (for example, ice sheets, ocean circulation, rainforests, coral reefs, permafrost, and monsoons) can greatly amplify climate risks, as they can trigger large, often irreversible shifts that have dangerous local and regional consequences. They are an additional danger to the already growing risks of heat waves, droughts, extreme sea levels, increased occurrence and intensity of several other extreme event types, all of which constitute multiple reasons for concern. However, due to lack of precedence in the recent observational record, the biophysical mechanisms at play, and the likelihood of those outcomes are poorly known, resulting in inconsistent use of terminology and emotive communication narratives, leading to confusion, and in some cases disengagement, of public and stakeholders.</jats:p>

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Keywords

earth system climate human changes

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