Abstract
<jats:p>Due to long-term intensive food production and unsustainable agricultural practices in some areas of China, cultivated land faces challenges such as soil depletion, reduced organic matter content, and deteriorating physical and chemical properties, which pose obstacles to the sustainable use of cultivated land and the steady increase in grain production capacity. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors affecting the stability of arable land production capacity in Heilongjiang Province, to study their impact on the stability of production potential, and to develop a theoretical framework and practical recommendations for ensuring the quality development of regional agriculture and responding to fluctuations in global food prices. In this paper, Heilongjiang Province was selected as the research object, and data from 2001 to 2020 was used. The results showed that the stability of the production potential of arable land exhibited a significant upward trend in the east and a downward trend in the west of Heilongjiang Province. The impact of climate fluctuations and human activities on the stability of the production potential of arable land is characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity. There are obvious differences in the key factors and their direction of action in different regions. The stability of production capacity is largely influenced by climate fluctuations and human activities, and the effects of these two factors are significantly heterogeneous and generally weakening. In the future, it will still be necessary to pay more attention to analyzing changes in the stability of arable land production capacity in order to make effective land management decisions.</jats:p>