Abstract
<jats:p>This research analyzes the problem of predicting criminal behavior based on psychological characteristics within the framework of fuzzy logic methodology. Crime is considered not merely as a legal phenomenon, but as a complex behavioral system formed through the interaction of social, psychological, and biological determinants. It has been established that the assessment of criminal risk cannot be based solely on simple cause–effect relationships; rather, it requires a comprehensive analysis of multifactorial and uncertain systems. The main objective of the study is to provide a theoretical and methodological justification for estimating the probability of criminal behavior based on an individual’s psychological traits, to systematize the psychological factors that provoke and prevent criminal conduct, and to develop a risk assessment model grounded in fuzzy logic. The study examines the problem of the determination of criminal behavior, the difficulties of prediction, and the identification of order within chaotic systems. Psychological risk factors are classified according to behavioral history, emotional-affective characteristics, cognitive and decision-making mechanisms, personality structure, willpower and self-control, value-motivational system, and sociopsychological skills. At the same time, protective psychological factors that deter criminal behavior are systematized separately, and the necessity of incorporating them into risk assessment is substantiated. In the applied part of the research, fuzzy modeling is explained step by step, including the evaluation of psychological variables within the (0;1) interval, the construction of triangular membership functions, the application of Mamdani-type inference mechanisms based on “if–then” rules, and the defuzzification stage. In conclusion, it is determined that fuzzy logic provides a flexible and scientifically grounded assessment mechanism that takes into account the factor of uncertainty in predicting criminal behavior. The proposed model may serve as a methodological basis for crime prevention, individual risk assessment, and the planning of preventive measures. Keywords: criminal behavior, psychological risk, assessment, value system, motivation, social environment, emotional state, self-control.</jats:p>