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Abstract

<jats:p>Abstract. This article substantiates how modern digital technologies, specifically the Digital Twins concept, can significantly enhance political decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, information scarcity, and actor pluralism. We concentrate attention on the novel concepts of the development of the decision making processes and procedures with the accent on implementation of socioeconomic simulations in these decisions formulation. The goal of our studies is to demonstrate how the Digital Twins exploration may significantly improve policy decisions making through the analysis of possible alternatives. Nowadays the macroeconomic models are incapable to take into account all the aspects while the behavioral models are insufficiently developed. Digital Twins are defined as dynamic virtual models of real-world systems (cities, industries, or social processes) that operate based on real-time data. They enable policymakers to "stress-test" political decisions within a secure digital environment, providing high-precision forecasting of outcomes before their physical implementation, thus preventing destabilizing social consequences. The study argues that the role of a Digital Twin in public policy extends far beyond functional duplication or monitoring; its primary value lies in scenario forecasting through Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). The authors propose a framework for robust interaction between Digital Twins and the institutions responsible for developing and implementing public policies. Furthermore, the integration of DAPP with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is explored to diagnose latent barriers and root causes of systemic issues. The article offers practical scenarios for utilizing Digital Twins in electoral and demographic tasks and discusses "soft" decision-making methods for multi-criteria evaluation of policy alternatives. One of the cases demonstrates a possibility to forecast the result of elections by means of the Digital Twins methods with taking into account sociological data on economic expectations and value orientations of voters. Keywords: Public Policy, making political decisions, Digital Twins, virtual forecasting, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Causal Layered Analysis</jats:p>

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digital twins policy decisions political

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