SETTLEMENT AND SOCIAL ADAPTATION OF ETHNIC KAZAKH RETURNEES IN SOUTHERN KAZAKHSTAN: REGIONAL DYNAMICS AND MIGRATION POLICY IMPLICATIONS (2000–2023), ОҢТҮСТІК ҚАЗАҚСТАНДАҒЫ ҚАНДАСТАРДЫҢ ҚОНЫСТАНУЫ МЕН ӘЛЕУМЕТТІК БЕЙІМДЕЛУІ: АЙМАҚТЫҚ ДИНАМИКАСЫ ЖӘНЕ КӨШІ-ҚОН САЯСАТЫНЫҢ ӘСЕРІ (2000–2023 ЖЖ.), РАССЕЛЕНИЕ И СОЦИАЛЬНАЯ АДАПТАЦИЯ ҚАНДАСОВ В ЮЖНОМ КАЗАХСТАНЕ: РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ДИНАМИКА И ВЛИЯНИЕ МИГРАЦИОННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ (2000–2023 ГГ.)

<jats:p>Abstract. Introduction. Since gaining independence, the integration of kandas (ethnic Kazakh returnees) has gradually evolved into a structurally significant component of Kazakhstan’s demographic and social policy. These processes have manifested with particular intensity in the southern regions of the country, which traditionally serve as major destinations for ethnic migrants due to their demographic, economic, and cultural characteristics. The sustained inflow of kandas into these territories has not only reshaped local settlement patterns but has also generated additional pressure on social infrastructure, influenced labor market dynamics, and stimulated the emergence of diverse adaptation strategies at both institutional and community levels. In this context, a regionally disaggregated analysis provides a more nuanced understanding of how migration policy operates in practice and how its outcomes vary across territories. Aim and objectives. The present study aims to examine the regional dynamics of settlement and social adaptation of kandas in southern Kazakhstan over the period 2000–2023, with a particular focus on evaluating the effectiveness of migration policy instruments. To achieve this objective, several interrelated tasks were addressed: first, a systematic analysis of archival and statistical sources was conducted; second, spatial patterns of settlement, access to housing, and employment trajectories were examined; third, the institutional and regulatory framework governing migration processes was reviewed; and finally, the key constraints and barriers affecting social adaptation were identified and interpreted. Results. The empirical analysis demonstrates that southern Kazakhstan has consistently functioned as one of the principal reception zones for kandas throughout the study period. At the same time, a significant proportion of migration flows occurred outside the established quota mechanisms, which contributed to an uneven distribution of resources and intensified pressure on housing markets, employment opportunities, and social services. Although legislative and institutional reforms implemented between 2012 and 2023 have improved certain aspects of migration governance, their impact has been heterogeneous, and a number of persistent challenges related to social integration remain evident. Conclusion. Overall, the processes of settlement and social adaptation of kandas in southern Kazakhstan exhibit a complex, multi-layered, and path-dependent character. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of migration policy cannot be assessed in isolation from regional socio-economic conditions, which significantly mediate policy outcomes. Furthermore, the incorporation of archival evidence underscores the importance of accounting for historical experience in designing more context-sensitive and regionally differentiated migration strategies.</jats:p>