Abstract
<jats:p>Spain is the world’s second-largest producer of stone fruits (peach, plum, cherry, and apricot) after China, with a total production of approximately 1.8 million tons in 2024 (FAOSTAT, 2024). The viability of these crops is highly dependent on climatic conditions, particularly temperature, as they undergo a period of winter dormancy that is broken by exposure to sufficiently cold conditions (chill accumulation). The chilling requirement needed to release dormancy is cultivar-dependent, and inadequate chill accumulation can lead to significant production losses, with consequent economic impacts for growers.In addition to chill accumulation, other temperature-related agroclimatic metrics are critical for the proper development of these crops, including frost risk and the occurrence of heat extremes during sensitive phenological stages. Ongoing climate warming is expected to significantly alter these metrics, potentially compromising the suitability of some current production areas, especially in warmer regions.Quantifying future changes in these agroclimatic indicators is therefore essential to anticipate potential impacts and support adaptation strategies, such as cultivar replacement or the relocation of production areas to regions with lower climatic risk. In this study, we quantify projected changes in key agroclimatic metrics over the coming decades using IPCC AR6 projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, thereby updating and refining previous assessments based on AR5.The analysis is based on hourly temperature observations from 270 weather stations located in major stone fruit production regions in Spain, covering the period up to 2020. In addition, study areas are spatially extended using interpolation techniques that have proven to perform best for accumulated chill estimation, enabling the identification of nearby areas with potentially lower risk in case of future shifts in production.The results presented here provide a robust decision-support framework for planning future stone fruit cultivation and other temperate crops in Spain under changing climatic conditions.</jats:p>