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Abstract

<jats:p>Coastal flooding driven by sea-level rise is expected to become one of the most significant climate-related hazards affecting low-lying coastal regions worldwide during the coming years. Along the Mediterranean coast, where population, economic activities, and critical infrastructures are highly concentrated near the shoreline, even moderate increases in sea level may substantially increase flood exposure and associated economic losses. Assessing future coastal flood impacts is therefore essential to support adaptation planning and risk management strategies.However, projections of future coastal flooding are subject to considerable uncertainty. These uncertainties arise from differences among climate scenarios, sea-level rise projections, storm surge contributions, local coastal morphology, and the representation of hydrodynamic processes. As a result, impact assessments based on a limited number of future scenarios may provide an incomplete picture of the range of possible outcomes and their associated risks.To address this issue, we propose a high-resolution framework that generates inundation and damage functions for a continuous range of sea-level rise values over the Spanish Mediterranean coast. For this objective, we developed a very fast hydraulically connected flood model and applied it to a very detailed topographic data (5m).  The analysis of these functions allows the identification of critical behaviour, defined as the threshold beyond which inundated areas and economic damages increase abruptly in response to relatively small additional increases in sea level. The identification of such critical points provides valuable information for climate adaptation planning, enabling the prioritization of preventive measures before the most severe impacts are triggered.Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the INSIEME and ISANMAR projects (FSRM/10.13039/100007801).</jats:p>

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Keywords

coastal sealevel rise economic critical

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