Abstract
<jats:p>Extreme weather events generate effects that transcend the physical realm, producing economic, social, and political consequences whose magnitude depends both on the intensity of the phenomenon and on the exposure and vulnerability of the affected societies. The literature has identified various mechanisms through which these events can alter social dynamics and collective behaviors, including political responses associated with society's perception of institutional risk management and its impacts (Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel, 2015). In this context, analyzing political responses to extreme events provides a way to understand the adaptive capacity and institutional resilience of exposed territories.This study analyzes the relationship between flooding episodes and changes in electoral outcomes in municipalities along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. This area is a particularly relevant case study because it has been the site of numerous episodes of intense rainfall that have resulted in serious human and material consequences. Additionally, it is characterized by a high concentration of population and infrastructure, and a complex territorial organization, increases exposure and vulnerability to these types of events.Based on the integration of databases on floods and electoral results, this study examines: (1) the possible relationship between precursor variables linked to flood events and variables of electoral response; (2) the differences in electoral changes according to political blocs; and (3) the spatiotemporal variability of these effects among autonomous communities. Furthermore, the analysis incorporates a multi-level perspective, in order to assess whether the political attribution of the impact varies according to the institutional scale and the distribution of powers in areas such as territorial planning, civil protection, water management or emergency response.Results suggest that the temporal proximity between the occurrence of a flood and the holding of elections is associated with greater variation in electoral results, which points to a greater sensitivity of electoral behavior to recent events. This response would not be homogeneous between political options, observing differentiated electoral effects between blocks. However, the power/opposition effect seems to be more relevant. Likewise, it is expected that there will be spatial heterogeneity in the electoral response between autonomous communities, depending on their institutional, social characteristics and political context.</jats:p>