Abstract
<jats:p>The Mediterranean region is widely recognized as a climate change hotspot, where the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme phenomena pose significant threats to both environmental stability and socio-economic resilience. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and prolonged droughts have led to heightened risks of heatwaves, flash floods, and agricultural stress across the basin. Identifying the underlying atmospheric drivers of these events is critical for improving early warning systems and developing effective adaptation strategies. However, traditionally applied correlation methods fail to provide robust evidence regarding the physical causality behind the analyzed connections.Using the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) causal discovery approach, the current study examines the causal relationships between temperature (including mean temperature, and its minimum and maximum values), precipitation, and soil moisture in the studied region. This advanced approach allows for the quantification of robust causal links while accounting for multivariate dependencies and time lags. To account for regional climatic heterogeneity, the Mediterranean is partitioned into eight subregions using k-means clustering based on temperature and soil moisture profiles. The study evaluates the causal influence of large-scale teleconnection patterns and Synoptic Weather Types (WTs), during both summer and winter seasons.Results indicate a strong influence of Western patterns during winter, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore, the analysis reveals an important influence from eastern drivers during the summer months, notably through the Indian Summer Monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). By quantifying the strength of these causal links and identifying the specific weather types that lead to adverse conditions, this research offers a more rigorous understanding of synoptic mechanisms than traditional correlation-based methods. These findings are crucial for enhancing seasonal forecasting and advancing climate resilience in the Mediterranean Basin.Acknowledgements: This research was supported by the PREVENT project that has received funding from the EU Horizon Europe framework programme (grant no. 101081276)</jats:p>