Abstract
<jats:p>Mediterranean agricultural areas may experience abrupt hydroclimatic contrasts, where long dry phases may be followed by concentrated rainfall sequences capable of triggering rapid landscape instability. In these contexts, soil erosion and gully activation are not only the consequence of a single storm, but the result of accumulated climatic and land-surface stressors acting on vulnerable soils. This contribution explores how a sequence of climatic stressors affected a cereal-crop gully system located near Casabermeja, Málaga, southern Spain, an area representative of Mediterranean agricultural landscapes affected by soil degradation, runoff concentration and irregular rainfall regimes. The study focuses on the transition between a markedly dry summer period and a subsequent winter storm train. During June–July 2025, the area received only 2.0 mm of rainfall over 61 days, including a 50-day dry spell. This antecedent dry state was followed by a persistent rainfall sequence between 21 January and 9 February 2026, with 234.8 mm accumulated in 20 days and a daily maximum of 76 mm. This contrast provides a suitable framework to examine how antecedent drought may condition the spatial response of agricultural soils to later rainfall extremes. To assess this response, two high-resolution UAV surveys were acquired before and after the storm sequence. Terrain and multispectral products were used to derive indicators related to topography, surface cover and hydrological organization. These variables were integrated into a machine-learning workflow designed to distinguish pre- and post-event surface conditions and to identify the main spatial controls of the observed response. The results indicate that the post-event pattern was mainly associated with hydrological connectivity and runoff concentration, while vegetation and surface-cover changes played a secondary, modulating role. This suggests that the impact of Mediterranean rainfall extremes depends strongly on the previous climatic state of the landscape and on the degree of soil vulnerability. By framing gully response as the outcome of interacting climatic stressors, this work provides a useful perspective for mapping erosion-prone areas and supporting adaptive soil-management strategies in Mediterranean agricultural environments.</jats:p>