Green Bonds and the Renewable Energy Transition in Türkiye

<jats:p>Green bonds have become a flagship instrument of sustainable finance, yet evidence on their impact in emerging economies remains thin. We study Türkiye, where green bond stock grew from EUR 288 million in 2016 to USD 9.64 billion by end-2024. We combine a 2022 Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) disaggregating electricity by source with four ARDL bounds-testing models on 2010–2024 data. The FSAM shows financial frictions cut sectoral multipliers by 25–30%, with wind hit hardest (5.70→4.44, below gas at 4.87). Hypothetical Extraction ranks gas as Türkiye's most systemically important electricity sub-sector (+18.7%) and coal as a structural drag (−28.7%). Integrating observed green-bond stock shifts multipliers by only 0.02%—too small to reset structural arithmetic. The aggregate renewable share does not cointegrate with green-bond stock (F = 1.54–3.31), but wind generation (F = 7.03) and CO2 emissions (F = 5.72) do. Each USD billion yields ~2.0 TWh of wind and a 3.0 Mt CO2 cut long-run. Green bonds work on composition and emissions, but not yet at scale.</jats:p>