Improving social management in the conditions of inflational instability

<jats:p>This article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of developing adaptive social management amid inflationary instability and growing macroeconomic uncertainty. It is argued that current inflationary processes significantly affect the population’s standard of living, the purchasing power of incomes, the extent of poverty, social inequality, as well as the financial capacity of the state and local communities to implement social policy. It has been established that traditional approaches to social management, which are based primarily on responding to existing social problems, require a transformation to increase the flexibility, predictability, and adaptability of management decisions. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical rationale for and develop a model of adaptive social management that integrates forecast data, macroeconomic monitoring, social risk assessment, managerial decision-making, and performance monitoring. The authors propose a model that uses forecast indicators of inflation, gross domestic product, the state of the labor market, household income, and the discount rate to identify potential social risks and adjust management measures accordingly promptly. A distinctive feature of the model is its cyclical nature, which involves a feedback loop between the outcomes of social policy implementation and the subsequent refinement of management decisions. The practical significance of the study is confirmed by the validation of the proposed approach using 2022–2025 data from Ukraine. The systematization of the interrelationships among macroeconomic factors, social risks, and management response tools has enabled the justification of predictive analytics to improve the effectiveness of social policy, refine budget planning, and ensure the resilience of the social management system in the face of inflationary challenges. Keywords: social management, inflationary instability, adaptive management, social risks, macroeconomic indicators, predictive analytics, social policy.</jats:p>