Methodological principles for assessing the realized and unrealized export potential of ukrainian agrarian business

<jats:p>The purpose of the study is to develop methodological principles for assessing the realization of the export potential of Ukrainian agrarian businesses by distinguishing among formed export capacity, actual exports, and the unrealized part of that potential. A methodological approach is proposed that defines sustainable physical export potential (SPEP), the export potential realization ratio (EPRR), unrealized export potential (UEP), and the use of reserves above the sustainable level (ERD). To identify the sources of export change, a symmetric decomposition was used, which divides the total change in actual exports into the effects of changes in the formed potential and in the degree of its realization. Empirical testing was conducted using USDA Production, Supply, and Distribution data on wheat, corn, and barley in Ukraine for the 2020/21–2024/25 marketing years. The insurance reserve parameter was calibrated separately for each crop based on the pre-war ratio of ending stocks to domestic consumption. The stability of the results was checked by analyzing the sensitivity of the reserve parameter. It was found that the dynamics of actual exports do not always reflect changes in the agricultural sector’s ability to realize its formed export potential. In the 2021/22 marketing year, the growth of wheat and corn exports coincided with a significant deterioration in potential realization, while in 2023/24, export growth was mainly driven by the restoration of the ability to realize the already formed commodity supply. The decomposition showed that the same direction of change in actual exports can arise from fundamentally different economic processes. The scientific novelty of the study lies in improving the methodological approach to assessing export potential by distinguishing between changes in its formed value and changes in the degree of realization. The proposed approach can be used to diagnose unrealized export reserves, assess the consequences of external shocks, and formulate state and corporate export policy measures. Keywords: export potential, agrarian business, agricultural export, sustainable physical export potential, realization of export potential, unrealized potential, grain crops, export decomposition, Ukraine.</jats:p>