Structural-dynamic model of the economic resilience of construction development enterprises under systemic uncertainty

<jats:p>The purpose of the article is to develop a structural-dynamic model of economic resilience for construction development enterprises under systemic uncertainty, interpreting resilience as the ability of an interconnected economic system to remain within a viability domain under interacting and cascading disturbances. The study combines systems and structural-functional approaches, dynamic-systems theory, network analysis, scenario modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation. A vector of normalized economic parameters represents enterprise condition, while a time-varying transmission matrix describes how financial, resource, operational, project, contractual, and coordination deviations propagate through interdependencies. The model distinguishes between insufficient reserve and critical boundaries, and structural amplification of disturbances. A normalized distance to the viability boundary measures the current reserve, while the spectral radius of the absolute transmission matrix diagnoses damping, critical persistence, or cascading amplification. Resilience is also expressed as the probability of remaining inside the viability domain over a specified horizon. A risk-sensitive stabilization problem links intervention costs, conditional value-at-risk, and a minimum acceptable probability of viability. Monte Carlo simulation shows that enterprises with the same initial reserve may exhibit different resilience due to their transmission structure: an amplification coefficient above 1 can trigger cascading losses before conventional indicators reach critical thresholds. Scientific novelty lies in treating the internal transmission structure as an independent source of fragility and in combining viability geometry, spectral analysis, and probabilistic assessment into a single managerial model. Practical value lies in identifying key channels and selecting targeted measures such as liquidity buffers, supply diversification, portfolio sequencing, and critical resource reservation. Further research should empirically estimate transmission matrices and test the proposed indicators. Keywords: economic resilience; construction development; systemic uncertainty; viability; shock transmission; cascading risk; system dynamics; managerial intervention.</jats:p>