Valleys of death in the innovation cycle: diagnosing structural gaps in the industrial system through the development readiness chain

<jats:p>The ability to transform research results into serially manufactured industrial products is a key characteristic of an economy’s technological sovereignty. The most widely used indicator of development maturity in global practice—the Technology Readiness Level (TRL)—only assesses whether the scientific and technological principle underlying a technology has been demonstrated, and does not characterize its capacity for serial production, integration into a target system, or market availability. The article aims to systematize the complete four-dimensional readiness chain TRL–MRL–IRL–CRL as a unified diagnostic tool, establish a formal consistency rule among its components, and develop a quantitative framework for rapid diagnostics. The methodological basis of the study comprises a systems approach and the methods of analysis, synthesis, scientific generalization, comparison, and matrix modeling. For each scale, its definition, level structure, and theoretical origins in the international literature are presented. The monotonicity rule TRL ≥ MRL ≥ IRL ≥ CRL is substantiated, and three “valleys of death” – TRL→MRL, MRL→IRL, and IRL→CRL – are formulated on this basis as operational forms of the structural gap in the industrial system. A quantitative TRL×MRL → (CRL; IRL) readiness matrix is developed, providing a substantive interpretation of nine states, along with a classification of eight development-readiness zones and management recommendations for each group of zones. A differentiated methodology for the multilevel aggregation of readiness indicators from the enterprise to the sectoral and national levels is proposed, accounting for the distinct economic meaning of each scale and introducing a strategic multiplier for defense-critical enterprises. The chain is aligned with the K0–K4 contour model and the typology of research, technology, and industrial parks. Future research is expected to focus on developing sector-specific modifications of the matrix for industries with different commercialization pathways, as well as empirically validating the proposed readiness ranges using a sample of Ukrainian high-tech enterprises. Keywords: innovation activity; commercialization of R&amp;D results; technology readiness; manufacturing readiness; integration readiness; commercial readiness; valley of death; technology transfer; structural gap; industrial system; industrial policy.</jats:p>