Abstract
<jats:p>Purpose: To provide qualitative and quantitative substantiation of structural changes in the innovation cycle of enterprises within Ukraine's defense-industrial complex, assess the speed of progression through development stages using the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale, and determine the elasticity of innovation outcomes relative to the volume of funding for research and development activities. Method. The research is based on the application of econometric modeling techniques, particularly the construction of a logarithmic regression model to analyze statistical data for the period from 2012 to 2024. Comparative analysis was employed to benchmark technological development rates, while probabilistic modeling was used to evaluate risks at different stages of the product life cycle. Findings. The study demonstrates the transition of the innovation cycle in Ukraine's defense-industrial complex from an inertial linear model to a recursive system of agile defense management. It was established that the time interval from conceptualization to combat application of technologies has decreased four- to six-fold. Econometric analysis confirmed increasing returns on investments in high-technology developments, with the elasticity coefficient exceeding unity. It was further proven that institutional decentralization and rapid feedback loops exert a more substantial impact on system performance than mere increases in funding volumes. Practical implications. The findings can be utilized by public authorities to improve certification and testing procedures for advanced weaponry. The proposed model for forecasting the success of innovation projects enables optimization of budget allocation under crisis conditions. Paper type. Empirical quantitative research article (econometric modeling focus).</jats:p>