СТАТИСТИЧНІ МЕТОДИ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ БІЗНЕСУ І ДЕРЖАВ НА ДОВКІЛЛЯ, STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF BUSINESSES AND COUNTRIES

<jats:p>A trend analysis of changes in environmental indicators over time was conducted, and general trends in their development were identified. A trend model was applied to estimate global demand for energy resources among countries worldwide. The obtained value of the coefficient of determination indicates that 97.14% of the variation in the studied indicator is explained by a linear trend, while only 2.86% is attributable to the influence of random factors and short-term fluctuations. For the global TES time series for 2000–2023, the RMSE is 10,893.414 PJ. In relative terms, this is approximately 2.05% of the series’ mean, indicating a sufficiently high accuracy of the trend model. The measure of the series’ overall variability, expressed as the root mean square deviation, is 65,802,776 TJ for the series under study. The resulting coefficient of variation of 12.37% indicates a moderate level of fluctuation in the indicator relative to its mean. Based on the global time series “World / Total Energy Supply (TES),” a structural analysis of energy indicators on a global scale was conducted, the overall configuration of the global energy balance was assessed, and the shares of individual types of energy resources were determined. The structural analysis conducted by sector of final energy consumption allowed for several important conclusions: first, over the period 2000–2023, global final energy consumption increased significantly, reflecting rising global energy demand and the expansion of economic activity; second, the structure of this demand underwent noticeable changes: the leading role gradually shifted to the Industry sector, which became the world’s largest energy consumer in 2023, while Transport retained a very high, though no longer dominant, share; third, the share of the residential sector has declined, indicating a relative weakening of the role of households in the overall energy balance. A structural analysis by end-use sectors showed that the global energy system remains heavily dependent on energy-intensive sectors of the economy; consequently, the energy transition must not only shift energy sources but also reshape the structure of final energy consumption toward greater efficiency and environmental sustainability.</jats:p>