СУЧАСНІ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНІ ШОКИ БЛИЗЬКОСХІДНОЇ ВІЙНИ, ACTUAL ENERGY SHOCKS OF THE MIDDLE EAST WAR

<jats:p>The article analyses the emergence and content of energy shocks as an outcome of the modern war in the Middle East, the impact of shocks on the world economy. The unexpected bombing of Iran by American and Israeli troops in February 2026 was followed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of oil supplies to world markets passed. Iran spread the war to neighboring Gulf countries, their extractive industries and infrastructure. This led to a sharp formation of an energy supply shock and a significant jump in world prices for oil, petroleum products, liquefied gas and other goods. The specifics of the Middle East war gave imposed the nature of energy shocks. War features as unexpected, not announced, aerial strikes targets military and economic infrastructure, strikes rolled by Iran on the neighboring Gulf countries, igniting an uncertainty and hardly negotiable peace prospects. The article analyses the origin and content of economic and energy shocks, their extent and implications. Argued that energy shocks may not move in same direction, but rather under stressful conditions such as war high uncertainty may look like a chain of shocks. Between shocks spikes of oil prices surges could be some moves to market normalsation. The article identifies factors of economic uncertainty as a result of war shocks, features of oil price fluctuations, channels of influence of energy shocks on the international economy. Argued that the main economic consequence of shocks is an increase of inflation expectations, energy inflation and consumer prices. Inflation forecasts for 2026 have been increased for OECD countries and major oil consumers China and India. General inflation would pass-through on the production cost and core inflation with effect on economic growth. Energy shocks put attention to resilience and attractiveness of alternative energies as well as energy efficiency. The main regulatory measures of post-shock stabilization are outlined such as oil reserves upgrading, rational demand and alternative sources. The Middle East war energy shocks impact on the war-affected Ukraine are considered with an emphasis on the measures for security, resilience and decentralization.</jats:p>