SIMULATION MODELING OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN THE RETAIL TRADE DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM OF UKRAINE

<jats:p>The article substantiates the application of simulation modeling as a method for assessing the consequences of structural reforms in the retail trade development system of Ukraine. The research gap addressed is that existing studies either describe individual structural reforms of retail trade – market-entry deregulation, tax changes, digitalization of administration, relocation of trade enterprises under wartime conditions – or characterize simulation modeling methodology in economic and management research in general, while a comprehensive combination of these two directions for forecasting the consequences of reforms specifically in Ukraine's retail sector remains insufficiently developed. The purpose of the article is to develop a conceptual simulation model for assessing the consequences of structural reforms in the retail trade development system of Ukraine and to test it using a scenario-based approach. The research question addressed is how the intensity and sequencing of structural reform implementation affect key indicators of retail trade development. Research methods include systemic analysis, generalization, simulation (scenario) modeling, statistical data-processing methods, and graphical and tabular methods. The article constructs a conceptual model reflecting the cause-and-effect relationships between structural reforms (deregulation, tax reform, digitalization of administration, logistics infrastructure reform, employment regulation) as model input parameters and key industry development indicators (retail turnover, number of small and medium-sized business entities, share of shadow turnover, employment level, share of online sales) as output variables. Based on simulation calculations for three scenarios – baseline, moderate, and intensive reform – it was established that the greatest cumulative positive effect is achieved under synchronous rather than sequential implementation of reforms, while fragmented (uncoordinated) reform is accompanied by a short-term increase in the share of shadow turnover and outflow of small business entities. The scientific novelty of the study lies in developing an original approach to formalizing the relationship between structural reform parameters and retail trade development indicators by means of simulation modeling, which allows forecasting the consequences of reforms prior to their practical implementation. The practical value of the results lies in the possibility of using the developed model by trade regulatory bodies for preliminary testing of regulatory decisions, and by trade enterprises for strategic planning under conditions of reform.</jats:p>