Abstract
<p>[Objective] To examine the actual relationship between structural pressure and fertility exit intention, and to identify the core psychological mechanisms driving fertility exit, based on the Squeeze Model (v2).[Methods] Using both cross-sectional data (CFPS 2020 and 2022) and four-wave panel data (CFPS 2016–2022), this study employs exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, logistic and multinomial logistic regression, cross-lagged analysis, and fixed-effects models for empirical testing.[Results] The collapse of fairness perception comprises two independent dimensions—distributive fairness denial and rule fairness denial—with only the former significantly driving fertility exit intention. The total effect of structural pressure on exit intention is negative, suggesting that it functions more as a catalyst (rather than a direct driver) that accelerates the translation of collapsed fairness perceptions into exit intentions; this effect requires long-term accumulation, is amplified by institutional exclusion, is suppressed by time pressure, and peaks within 2–4 years before declining. The exit decision is based on a cognitive judgment of the distributive order, rather than emotional distress. Multiple trust deficits constitute an independent pathway to exit, separate from structural pressure.[Conclusions] The collapse of the distributive order is the core driving force of fertility exit, with structural pressure acting merely as a catalyst. Trust vacuum constitutes an independent exit pathway, and the exit decision is essentially a cognitive judgment rather than an emotional reaction.</p>