Abstract
<p>What predicts democratic satisfaction in the United States? Using the 1996–2024 time series as well as the 2000–02–04 and 2016–20–24 panels from the American National Election Study, this article identifies the consistent and time-specific predictors of democratic satisfaction. We analyze satisfaction using 1) random forests to identify important predictors; 2) causal forests to test established predictors; and 3) doubly-robust difference-in-differences to identify the causal effect of winning elections. We find that 1) predictors have shifted significantly over time—affect toward big business dominates after 2016—but election efficacy and government responsiveness are consistently predictive; 2) established predictors, except affective polarization and participation, are all significant; and 3) winning elections significantly increases satisfaction, and effects in 2004 are double the size of the midterm and general elections in 2002 and 2020, respectively. These findings contextualize the United States in the broader comparative literature, opening avenues for future research on democratic satisfaction.</p>