Abstract
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic, which commenced in early 2020, significantly affected worldwide economies, labor markets, and employment conditions. Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh and its surrounding areas, provides a critical case study examining how the pandemic affected local government employee compensation. Paired t-tests of salary data between 2019 and 2020 (pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic) demonstrate a significant increase in average gross salaries for all employees of Allegheny County. While overall employee gross pays increased, the distribution of salaries became less concentrated, with a greater emphasis on higher-earning individuals. Within specific job categories, Nursing Assistants had a significantly greater salary in 2020; however, Deputy Sheriffs showed no significant change. Nursing Assistants likely worked more overtime to support the healthcare response to the pandemic. Law enforcement officers typically receive paid overtime to provide security for public events such as professional football, baseball, hockey games, and public concerts. With restrictions on these events, law enforcement officers likely faced reductions in their overtime pay in 2020. Forecasting employee salaries from 2023 to 2027 revealed a wide range in the intervals, reflecting increasing uncertainty further in the future. Due to potential variability, the forecasting results were, therefore, inconclusive.</p>