Abstract
<p>Meritocracy, the belief that individual effort rather than structural advantages drives success, has long shaped societal narratives but now faces growing skepticism. Using four waves of China Family Panel Studies, we examined changes in meritocratic and non-meritocratic beliefs among 524 participants from early adolescence (ages 10–13 in 2012) to emerging adulthood (ages 18–21 in 2020), and assessed their concurrent associations with depression trajectories. Meritocratic beliefs declined significantly in both college (d = −0.56) and non-college (d = −0.30) groups. Only college students increased in non-meritocratic beliefs (d = 0.72), and these changes were associated with steeper increases in depression. College students’ recognition of structural barriers to success is associated with heightened psychological costs, although causality cannot be inferred.</p>