Abstract
<p>Club-based wheelchair sports offer crucial avenues for adapted physical activity for individ-uals with physical disabilities. Yet, research examining participation intention in these set-tings is missing. Addressing this critical gap, we introduced an integration of behaviour change theories within a social-ecological framework to explore predictors of participation intention in adapted physical activity. Employing a cross-sectional exploratory design, survey data were collected from inactive members of the Swiss Paraplegic Association reporting physical disabilities. To capture complex, non-linear, and higher-order interactions, a condi-tional random forest was combined with interpretable machine learning techniques. Results revealed that exercise motivation, loneliness, social support, restrictions due to disability, and exercise self-efficacy are relevant predictors. These findings indicate that while intention represents an individual cognitive state, its formation is also driven by psychosocial factors and the desire to overcome isolation. These insights provide guidance for sports clubs and federations to design interventions to increase APA intention and participation.</p>