Abstract
<p>Positive and negative affect are linked to long-term physical and mental health. Beyond average affect levels, people also differ in how their emotions fluctuate over time. Prior research has examined discrete-time summary measures of affective dynamics (e.g., inertia, instability) and their associations with long-term outcomes. However, these measures are biased (e.g., by unequal measurement intervals) and overlook core processes, such as emotional recovery. Following classic theories in emotion, the present work resituates this problem within a dynamical systems framework, conceptualizing affect as defined by an affective “home base” (attractor location) and the speed of return to this base following perturbation (attractor strength). Using a modern, continuous time estimation framework, we test whether individual differences in these parameters constitute stable, consequential individual differences. Across three measurement burst datasets (N=472; 66,405 observations), we assess the one-year longitudinal stability of these parameters and their predictive validity of distal wellbeing outcomes. We find evidence for moderate stability of these parameters over one year, as well as replicable prediction of wellbeing outcomes by positive and negative affect attractor location and negative affect attractor strength. However, incremental validity over aggregate measures was limited. Implications for future study of affect as a dynamical system are discussed.</p>