Abstract
<p>The main reason people support government policies is that they believe the policy will be effective. But effective at achieving what outcome? And what happens when people disagree about whether that outcome is good or bad? We address these questions by testing whether Expectancy-Value Theory can be applied to policy support in seven studies (total N = 14,102) for three policies (red meat tax, alcohol calorie labels, points-based immigration system). In a pilot study we gather the public’s beliefs about the consequences of implementing the three policies. In Studies 1a-c, we conducted three pre-registered cross-sectional surveys and found that attitudes towards policy outcomes moderates the relationship between policy outcome beliefs and policy support. In Studies 2a-c, we conducted three pre-registered randomised pre-post-controlled experiments and replicate the main conclusions from Studies 1a-c. These studies find clear evidence that Expectancy-Value Theory explains public support for policies in multiple policy domains.</p>