Method for Student Enrolment Prediction for Preliminary Calculation of Teaching Load

<jats:p>This paper proposes a method for predicting the number of students expected to be enrolled at a higher education institution for its subsequent use in the preliminary calculation of teaching load for the upcoming academic year. The study presents the results of an analysis of existing methods for calculating the enrolment cohort used in teaching load estimation, identifies their drawbacks, and suggests ways to eliminate them. A distinctive feature of the proposed method is that the enrolment forecast is based on the consideration of both formalized and non-formalized factors affecting the estimated number of students. The paper also specifies the limiting conditions for applying the method, that is, the conditions under which its use is appropriate, including the minimum required time range of primary data for the cohort analysis, the requirements for the sources and quality of data used for forecasting, and a description of the smallest unit of the cohort calculation. The proposed method is a decision support tool. It includes a mathematical framework and an expert component implemented by the decision-maker. To confirm the effectiveness of the method, it is tested using data on the student cohort admitted to Bryansk State Technical University in 2025. Conclusions are drawn regarding the forecasting value of the method, the labour costs associated with its application, and the prospects for its further development.</jats:p>