Technological sovereignty of the Russian mining industry: financial and economic assessment of import substitution of heavy mining equipment and mineral processing machinery (2022–2025)

<jats:p>The study examines financial and economic efficiency of import substitution of heavy mining equipment and mineral processing machinery in the Russian mining industry in 2022–2025. The relevance of this issue stems from closing down delivery by Caterpillar, Komatsu, Hitachi, Liebherr, and Volvo CE, a critical demand of the sector for over 19,000 equipment positions (NP “Mining Industrialists of Russia”), and the Concept of Technological Development of the Russian Federation up to 2030 with the target domestic product share of at least 75%. The hypothesis is that the efficiency of import substitution is determined not by the industry share of domestic and friendly producers in the fleet, but by the integral ratio of total cost of ownership (TCO), productivity, and payback period of the substitution projects, differentiated by segments. The objective is to justify a differentiated performance assessment model by applying the integral technological sovereignty index ITS to six segments of mining equipment. The empirical base comprises IFRS annual reports of MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, SUEK JSC, Polyus PJSC, AK ALROSA (PJSC), and Kuzbassrazrezugol JSC for 2022–2025, data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Energy, the Central Control Administration of the Fuel and Energy Complex, and producers’ press releases. The methods include comparative financial and economic analysis, calculation of the ITS as a normalized linear convolution of four indicators, scenario factor analysis, and regression assessment. It is established that aggregate capital expenditures of the top-5 companies grew from RUB 605 billion to RUB 639 billion (2025 estimate); the CAPEX import independence index rose from 38 to 74%; the share of the Russian and Belarusian producers in the fleet grew from 54 to 63% with an accelerated increase of Chinese producers from 8% to 28%; the ITS reached 0.925 for the EKG power shovels ≥ 12 m3 and 0.598 for flotation and crushing equipment. Three priorities of the financial and economic policy are formulated as follows: preferential project financing for localization of heavy-duty machine building, a fiscal step of the investment deduction for projects with localization ≥ 60%, and differentiated customs tariffs for assembly operations.</jats:p>