Abstract
<jats:p>Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, and in Central America, many wetlands are threatened by a combination of land use change, water extraction, and climate change. In this region, climate variability (especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) has a profound impact on precipitation patterns, and ongoing climate change is driving changes in wetland water balances. This study aims to understand changes in hydrology of an environmentally and socially important freshwater wetland in the dry arc of Panama by quantifying spatial-temporal variations in climate, hydrology, and associated land cover. Annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the region average 1724 mm/yr and 1421 mm/yr, respectively, with no significant trends in precipitation, but a declining trend in evapotranspiration observed over the last 30 years. Supervised classification of satellite images revealed an average annual flooded wetland area of 485 ha (+/- 162) from 1997 to 2002, while for the period from 2014 to 2021, the average area was significantly lower (343 +/- 132 ha), a 29% reduction. Climate analysis indicated periods of drought in 2009 and 2015, coinciding with El Niño. Overall, wetland hydrology and associated land cover was highly sensitive to both precipitation and streamflow of the connected Santa Maria River. While limited to a single wetland, this study illustrates the sensitivity of wetland hydrology to climate variation in Central America and serves as an example of how the region’s wetlands may be affected by ongoing climate change.</jats:p>