‘Falling Backward’, or How Crises Affect Integration: The EU and the Energy Crisis

<jats:p>This paper investigates the applicability of the concept of ‘falling forward’ to crisis management in the European Union. An idea central to the literature is that the EU draws upon crisis situations to enhance its power and influence, as member states are willing to delegate further competencies to EU organs in order to collectively solve pressing problems. The assumption that crisis situations lead to an increase in the power of the supranational entity has been the subject of multiple studies, yet, the long-term impact of this process, which takes place with minimal public accountability, has been largely neglected. We seek to go beyond the short-term effects of crises on integration, to determine how shock events impact integration structures in the long run. A mixed methods inquiry, based on 102 survey responses and 15 interviews with EU experts, triangulated with Eurobarometer results, reveals that accelerated integration can foster dissatisfaction, bringing about a surge in elections of extremist and Eurosceptic parties. These political changes could pose a significant threat to EU integration and may cause the union to ‘fall backward’ rather than ‘forward’, as is systematically predicted in the existing academic literature. The case-study of the 2022 energy crisis in the EU confirms that the regional organisation does indeed gain in power and influence as it works to manage and mitigate the repercussions of a crisis but that this strengthening gives rise to new challenges for the union. This paper yields novel theoretical insights into the spill-over process (including the original concept of ‘falling backward’) and the functioning of regional organisations as complex polities.</jats:p>