Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Understanding changing levels of risk exposure for vessels in Arctic waters has become highly relevant due to the increasingly variable ice conditions and increased interest for economic and geopolitical purposes. This paper presents the first systematic evaluation of the changing levels of navigational risk exposure among ships operating in Arctic waters from 2015 to 2021. By combining historic sea ice conditions, ship position data, and ship attribute data such as ice strengthening, and using International Maritime Organization’s Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System risk index outcome function, we are able to better understand the varying levels of risk exposure over time, across geographic regions and among different vessel types. There has been more than a doubling of in Arctic maritime operations in ice covered waters over the six-year study period. Despite increases in activity levels, overall risk exposure is decreasing in part due to changing sea ice conditions. However, risk exposure is higher among certain vessel types and regions including among fishing, cargo, and tourism vessels in the Kara Sea, Norwegian Sea north-west of Svalbard, in Baffin Bay, in the eastern Bering Sea, and to a lesser extent in North Labrador and Hudson Strait in Canada.</p>