Global patterns of climate displacement and novel climate

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Climate analogues are widely used to interpret climate change, yet patterns of spatial relocation and the emergence of novel climates, unprecedented conditions lacking present-day analogues, remain poorly understood. Here we analyse climate analogues across emission scenarios to visualize global climate displacement patterns and examine climate novelty across warming levels. We found that low forcing primarily produces novelty through directional warming, whereas higher forcing increasingly generates a larger share of seasonally asymmetric and precipitation-contribution novelty, indicating that, in some regions, the strongest climate novelty is associated with seasonal variability and precipitation contributions rather than with mean warming alone. The global fraction of novel climates increases from about 1% under low-emission scenarios to 62% under high-emission scenarios by late century. Under high-emission scenarios, novel climates become widespread, revealing limits in the applicability of analogue-based frameworks and underscoring the need for new paradigms capable for interpreting climate change and communicating future climate risk.</p>