Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study estimates realized grocery price burden using item-level grocery purchase records from a single household in Lubbock, Texas. The study is intentionally framed as a descriptive case study and measurement demonstration rather than a population-level estimate of inflation or a direct analysis of household well-being. The dataset covers purchases from July 22, 2023 through July 31, 2026 and includes 4,697 item-level purchase records from H-E-B. Using each repeated item's first-year median nonzero unit price as a baseline, the analysis compares actual later spending with baseline-equivalent spending for the same repeated items. Across 408 repeated items and 1,802 later purchase rows, the household incurred $685.23 in gross extra cost and $386.27 in offsetting savings, producing a net realized grocery price burden of $298.96 over 37 months. This equals $8.08 per month and 1.07% of total tracked grocery spending. An illustrative rebate analysis shows that $15,659.94 of tracked spending was associated with H-E-B-family brand items; if all eligible matched items had been paid for with an H-E-B credit card offering 5% cash back on eligible H-E-B brand products, the potential post-purchase rebate would have been $783.00. The findings do not generalize to other households, but they demonstrate how item-level purchase histories can translate price changes into actual dollar burden and show how product mix, retailer choice, sales, private-label purchasing, and rebates can affect experienced grocery costs.</p>