India’s Vocational Education Policy Response to Artificial Intelligence: Layering or Conversion?

<title>Abstract</title> <p>India has launched a wide range of AI-skilling initiatives such as the Skill India Programme, SOAR, SkillSaksham, and the IndiaAI Mission. While these initiatives have expanded rapidly, little is known about whether they represent incremental policy additions or a fundamental transformation of the VET system. Drawing on Streeck and Thelen's theory of gradual institutional change, this study asks whether India's AI policy response reflects institutional layering or institutional conversion. Using qualitative document analysis of national policies, government reports, and international guidance across six dimensions - curriculum, teacher capacity, governance, assessment and credentialing, lifelong learning, and equity/informal-economy reach - the study finds that India's response is predominantly additive. Five dimensions show institutional layering, while assessment and credentialing shows early movement towards structural change via NSQF-aligned, credit-linked AI courses. The paper offers a framework distinguishing layering from conversion and argues genuine transformation requires reforms extending beyond programme expansion.</p>