An Assessment of Admission-related Factors as Predictors of Academic Performance in a New Medical School

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Background Admission into medical school is highly competitive, and the training that follows is rigorous and demanding. Identifying admission-related factors associated with early academic performance can help institutions select and support students who are most likely to succeed. This study assessed admission-related factors as predictors of academic performance among students in a newly established Nigerian medical school. Methods This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among all undergraduate medical students in 200 and 300 level at the School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tristate College of Medicine (Ibadan Campus), Hillside University of Science &amp; Technology, Ekiti State, Nigeria. Sociodemographic and admission-related data were collected via a structured online questionnaire and institutional records between April and June 2026. The outcome variable was current academic performance (first-semester grade point average, GPA). Associations were tested using chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests as appropriate; variables with p &lt; 0.2 on bivariate analysis were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. Results Of 69 eligible students, 68 (98.6%) participated. The mean age was 19.44 ± 2.63 years, and 67.6% were female. On bivariate analysis, type of secondary school attended (p = 0.001) and UTME score category (p = 0.023) were significantly associated with current academic performance: students who attended private secondary schools and those with UTME scores of at least 220 had higher performance. On multivariate analysis, students from public secondary schools had significantly higher odds of lower academic performance than those from private secondary schools (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.63–48.77, p = 0.012), although the wide confidence interval reflects the small number of public-school students in this sample. Conclusion Type of secondary school attended and UTME score were associated with academic performance among medical students in this cohort, with secondary school type emerging as an independent, though imprecisely estimated, predictor. Admission processes that consider these indicators as part of a holistic evaluation of applicants may support the selection of students likely to succeed in medical training, pending confirmation in larger, multi-institutional samples.</p>