Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Ecosystems and biodiversity sustain human welfare through essential services such as pollination, collectively contributingasignificantproportiontoglobalGDP.Yettheirrepresentationinlong-termsocioeconomicprojections remains critically limited, leading to biased outlooks, particularly under accelerating environmental change. Here we develop a long-term, climate-driven evaluation of the macroeconomic consequences of pollination decline, integrating a multi-model ensemble of climate-driven distribution projections of wild pollinator species and 129 crops, to quantify how biodiversity loss propagates through agricultural systems into the macro-economy across 122 EU sub-national regions to 2070. EU-wide average impacts, showing GDP losses up to €57.7 billion/year (-0.18%) and agricultural sector losses of-1.5 to-6.0% by 2070, systematically conceal severe spatial concentration of damages. Underhigh-emission scenarios, cropland productivity losses for vegetables, fruits and nuts exceed-30% in the most exposed regions, withsectoral economicimpactsspanningbetween-21.35%and+8.85%. Economicoutput polarises, with Mediterranean and eastern EU regions bearing disproportionate burdens, amplifying intra-EU economic disparities. Losses concentrate where pollinator-dependent cropping meets limited adaptive capacity, revealing critical vulnerabilities in the agricultural systems. These results demonstrate that biodiversity impacts cannot be properly captured by national-scale assessments and that spatial resolution is not a technical choice but a determinant of whether risks are visible at all. Standard integrated assessment models, typically resolved at macro-regional level, may systematically underestimate the vulnerability to climate-biodiversity impacts as aggregation conceals distributional tails by factors of 2-5×.</p>