Ex-ante Economic Impact of Adopting Genetically Engineered Sorghum on Production and Consumption in Elgeyo Marakwet County

<title>Abstract</title> <p>In the wake of global climate change, sorghum has become a strategic grain crop to combat food insecurity. Although the adoption of GE sorghum holds a promise for addressing food security, it is important to evaluate its ex-ante economic impact before commercial release. In Elgeyo-Marakwet County, sorghum farming has gained momentum owing to its tolerance to drought and diseases, short maturity period and as an alternative to livestock farming often plagued by myriad of challenges including cattle theft, shortage of pasture and water. This study assesses the ex-ante impact of GE sorghum on household level production and consumption. A sample of 275 sorghum farmers was calculated employing Slovin’s formula and selected through a multi-stage sampling procedure integrating purposive and simple random sampling techniques. A structured questionnaire embedded on a Kobo data collection software was used to collect data. DREAMpy model was employed assess the ex-ante impact of GE sorghum on household level of production and consumption. In terms of economic value, the adoption of GE sorghum is beneficial, with an estimated NPV of USD 9.69 million, IRR of 84% over 20 years and a high benefit-cost ratio of 16:1, with 55% of benefits accruing to GE sorghum producers and 45% to consumers. It was concluded that the ex-ante economic assessment indicates that adopting genetically engineered sorghum in Elgeyo Marakwet County is a worthwhile investment with strong potential to enhance agricultural productivity, farmer incomes, and consumer welfare.</p>