Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Critical minerals and materials are essential to energy systems and the broader economy, yet securing adequate supply amid rapidly rising demand faces physical and geopolitical challenges. We enhance the Global Change Analysis Model to endogenously represent material demand across multiple energy sectors and assess the multisector implications of material supply availability. Results show that material production constraints generate system-wide impacts through cross-sector interdependencies, with changes in one sector propagating throughout others in the system, affecting technology deployment, energy service demand, and prices. Halving 2050 bulk material production (i.e. steel, aluminum, and copper) relative to an unconstrained scenario increases U.S. electricity prices by 39%–70% and electric vehicle service costs by 36–85%. Equivalent constraints on specialty materials (e.g., lithium, neodymium, platinum, etc.) raise those costs by up to 11% and 40%, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of integrated, economy-wide approaches to understanding the energy–materials nexus under supply risk.</p>