Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> Narrow-ranged endemic plant species are highly vulnerable to environmental change, yet their conservation remains poorly understood in Central Asian mountain ecosystems. We assessed the conservation vulnerability of <italic>Arctium pallidivirens</italic> , a rare endemic of the Nuratau Mountains (Uzbekistan), using ensemble species distribution modelling (BIOMOD2). Field surveys and historical herbarium records were integrated with bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables to identify the environmental drivers of habitat suitability. Wet-season precipitation, soil properties, and vegetation productivity were the strongest predictors of species occurrence. The ensemble model identified only 110.16 km² (0.64% of the study area) as suitable habitat. Comparison with the observed distribution polygon (792.95 km²), derived from historical herbarium records and contemporary field observations, revealed a pronounced spatial mismatch, with only 84.81 km² (0.49%) of overlap. This pattern suggests substantial historical range contraction associated with long-term environmental and anthropogenic change. The remaining suitable habitats are concentrated in climatically buffered refugia, indicating that the current distribution reflects historical range contraction rather than an inherently narrow climatic niche. Our findings provide a robust spatial framework for identifying conservation priorities and supporting long-term monitoring of this narrow endemic species. </p>