Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p> Uzbekistan's five thematic bond issuances since 2021 demonstrate market access but have not financed the water- and energy-intensive processing stage of the country's 134-cluster cotton-textile system. This paper develops a generalisable conceptual model — Institutionally Conditioned Green Bond Architecture (ICGBA) — formalising how sector-specific green finance instruments must be jointly conditioned on a country's institutional-capacity track, its regulatory-transplantation track, and the verification rigour needed to avoid a conditional finance-intensity paradox identified in a companion analysis. We prioritise three proposed eligible-use-of-proceeds categories using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), cross-validated against the independent Best-Worst Method (Pearson r = 0.996); the resulting weights (water efficiency/effluent treatment: 0.42; energy efficiency/renewables: 0.37; certification/traceability: 0.21) are internally consistent (consistency ratio < 0.01). We build a three-scenario model quantifying illustrative water, energy, CO2, and export effects, and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of a representative cluster-level investment: commercial-rate financing yields a negative net present value (NPV = –USD 2.08 million; IRR = − 4.3%), while a blended concessional structure (50% grant, 50% concessional debt at 4%) renders the investment viable (NPV = + USD 0.53 million; IRR = 9.0%; payback 6.4 years), robust across a range of tariff assumptions tested in sensitivity analysis. We do not claim expert-panel validation of the proposed framework: a two-round Delphi protocol is fully specified but not yet fielded, and we report this gap transparently. Facility-level Uzbekistan ginning-cluster engineering data, sought but not found in the public domain, is substituted with a documented general textile-processing benchmark pending a dedicated engineering audit. <bold>JEL Classification:</bold> Q56, G23, O16, Q17, C44 </p>