Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study examines the developmental consequences of the intentional war and economic blockade in the Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia by the federal government of Ethiopia. Using time series data from the period 2020–2026, the study evaluates how warfare intensity and blockade-related disruptions affected development outcomes in the region. A Developmental Collapse Index (DCI) is constructed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using indicators of agricultural productivity, manufacturing activity, educational attainment, health service delivery, banking sector operations, food security, agricultural input supply, trade, rural access index and electrification rate. Warfare intensity and blockade severity are employed as the main explanatory variables, while inflation, rainfall variability, and humanitarian assistance are included as control variables. The empirical analysis reveals that the Amhara National Regional State experienced a significant deterioration in development outcomes due to the federal government's intentional war in the region. The estimated coefficient for warfare intensity (0.61) indicates that a one-unit increase in conflict intensity increased the Developmental Collapse Index of the region by approximately 0.61 points, holding other factors constant. The blockade severity coefficient (0.73) suggests that restrictions on mobility, market access, transportation networks, and the movement of goods and services exerted an even greater adverse effect on developmental outcomes than direct conflict exposure. The findings provide empirical evidence that prolonged war and blockage can generate severe developmental setbacks, undermining productive capacity, human capital formation, and socioeconomic resilience in the region. The study contributes to the conflict and development literature by introducing a multidimensional Developmental Collapse Index by quantifying the relative impacts of warfare and blockade on regional development. The results underscore the importance of conflict resolution, restoration of economic connectivity, protection of civilian infrastructure, and targeted reconstruction policies to facilitate sustainable recovery in the Amhara region. These findings offer important lessons for policymakers, development partners, and humanitarian organisations operating in fragile and conflict-affected environments of the Amhara National Regional State.</p>